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ALERT - Your Credit Report Is Being Sold! Protect Your Privacy!
January 13th, 2009 10:02 AM

ALERT – Immediate Action Required

To Protect Your Privacy & Guard Against Identity Theft!

Your Credit Report & Contact Information, Including your Social Security Number, is BEING SOLD! To Protect Your Privacy and Guard Against Identity Theft, Take Action Now!

Here’s breaking news you need to know … and you need to let all your family and friends know right away as well. Your information … a hot commodity!

Having credit checked is an important and necessary step in the home buying process. But very few people realize that each time their credit is checked, the “inquiry data” that the credit bureaus (Equifax, Trans Union, Innovis or Experian) have on file have now become a commodity. This information is being sold by the credit bureaus to other lenders…and also to companies that sell and resell the same names and personal information.

That’s right – the credit bureaus have found a way to increase their revenues at your expense…. and without your permission.
These “inquiry leads” include name, address, phone numbers (including unlisted), credit score, current debt and debt history, property information, age, gender and estimated income. They are marketing personal, confidential information to competing creditors…and making millions. Your privacy is being sold, not just once, but over and over again. And lenders that purchase these leads at a premium will then do everything they can to recoup their investment and turn a hefty profit. Super sneaky bait and switch tactics are being used to lure clients away from their reputable lender. Clients have even been called by disreputable lenders and told that the lender they had been speaking to previously “passed on” the information to them, because they knew that they’d be able to offer much better interest rates and terms. Ouch!

Just Say “No”!!!

The consumer credit reporting industry has provided a way to “opt out” and remove your name from these lists. You can contact them by phone at 1-888-567-8688 or online at www.optoutprescreen.com You must opt out at least 48 hours prior to having your credit checked to make sure it is processed in time. You can choose a five year or lifetime option, and the lifetime option does require a signed form. If a credit report needs to be run prior to the 48 hour waiting period – at least you are aware and informed, and can be on the lookout for suspicious phone calls or mailers from someone who has purchased your data.

The good news is by opting-out you can make it stop right away and protect yourself from “pre-approved credit offers” arriving via mail, which is one of the leading causes of identity theft in the US. Take Your Privacy Back! You certainly have the right to shop for the best professional to meet your lending needs – but this should be done when and how YOU choose, not being done without your consent or permission. You won’t know better. And unfortunately, these unsolicited marketing tactics are a nuisance and intrusive, but quite legal. Take your privacy back.

Take five minutes right now – opt out, and pass it on.

For more information, contact Jim Askins at Fairway Mortgage:

(CO) 970-731-3100 (NM) 505-263-7466 (Toll Free) 800-326-2100

jaskins@colmortgage.com www.colmortgage.com


Posted by JIM ASKINS on January 13th, 2009 10:02 AMPost a Comment (0)

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WHAT SHOULD YOU EXPECT IN 2009?
January 13th, 2009 9:37 AM

2009 Mortgage Forecast

Last year's forecast had anticipated some very odd happenings...but nothing to the extent of how the actual story unfolded, in what became a year of making history.

How did we do on our forecast last year?

* Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was confident that we were not heading into a recession and a down market . . . and we correctly disagreed.

* We saw Stocks heading lower . . . and they did, actually to a much larger extent than we had expected. But our one Stock selection for last year did quite well, more than doubling in a short period of time.

* We saw 2008 as being a year of high volatility . . . and that turned out to be an understatement.

* We said the Fed would cut . . . but we were wrong as to the extent of those cuts, brought on by the financial crisis, also something we did not foresee.

* We saw $4/gallon gasoline over the summer, and while many disagreed, our target price was correct.

* We did well with our forecast for the Dollar and Gold prices, as well as how we anticipated the housing

market to fare.

* Most importantly, and for more than 11 months during 2008, our rate forecast was right on target, with the last few weeks seeing mortgage rates decline further than we had predicted at this time last year.

What next? As we enter 2009, here's what our crystal ball is showing us.

The economy will have a tough go once again during the coming year. But we do see things as being better than during 2008, with more optimism in the air by this time next year.

The Fed and the Treasury have and will continue to add lots of stimulus to our economy. It will just take some time for the "medicine" to work its way through the system. After hogging the spotlight with many different moves, we expect the Fed to be on hold with their interest rate policy throughout the majority of 2009. After all, there's no room to cut further, and we don't see a hike until economic conditions show signs of improvement. When a hike comes, we may all take it as a welcome sign that things are getting better.

The job market will get worse before it gets better, and don't be surprised to see the unemployment rate rise to 8% from its present 6.7% level before things start to improve.

We can safely predict, without much disagreement from anybody, that volatility will continue for Stocks, but we do see hints that there will be a significant first quarter rally. By the end of 2009, we forecast that Stock prices will see some handsome gains. Our Stock picks for this year include UYG (Ultra Financials ProShares), currently trading around $5. This play on financials has a generous dividend yield, and stands to improve greatly should financials start to recover...and we think they will. We also like VZ (Verizon), currently trading around $30, as strength in cell phone usage and an exploding fiber optics business see them standing to gain. Additionally, there is a juicy 6% dividend yield. One more we like is DIG (ProShares Ultra Oil and Gas), presently priced close to $24. Keep reading on our oil forecast to understand why we like this play.

As of mid-December, with oil around $36/barrel, we saw a great opportunity for the long term. Oil prices will rise over time, and have already started to climb, and patience will be greatly rewarded. The negative side effect from lower oil prices is that it has greatly diminished research and exploration into alternative energysources, as well as investigating more costly extraction of fuel. For example, the oil-rich yet difficult to mine tar sands in Canada only make financial sense unless oil prices are over $70/barrel. And any other resources that are "boxed in" or require additional transportation costs may come offline at current oil prices. And once they are offline, there is a significant ramp up time to get them back. The irony in lower oil prices is that they may lead to much higher prices down the road.

Look for the Dollar to weaken a bit, but eventually strengthen as the US stabilizes while Europe declines a bit further.

On housing, we see 2009 as a period of price stabilization for most markets. One good gauge that home prices are stabilizing in your area is to figure a monthly payment with 20% down and compare that to rents for the same property. If it would actually be cheaper to purchase the home than to rent it - that's a good sign.

Home prices in some markets may still decline some during 2009, but those who make savvy purchases below market value should fare quite well, especially longer term. There's a lot of inventory on the market, which is viewed negatively, and needs to be sopped up before the housing market really turns. But...the inventory in the housing market does make this a fantastic time to be a buyer. Homebuyers will have a strong negotiating stance from the get-go, and are likely to make favorable deals, maybe even a once-in-lifetime deal. Those who buy a home and live in it for the long term will are likely to be rewarded handsomely. Let's face, people need homes. They are not going to start living in tents just because the economy is bad. We predict that consumers will start buying again in the coming year, particularly with attractive home loan rates and many homes to choose from.

Mortgage Rate Forecast ...How low can they go?

Early 2009 could very well mark the lowest rates that we will see for the rest of our lives. Think about that. More importantly, you should be thinking about that too. We expect interest rates to stay in a range of 4.5 - 5.5%, with the potential to see rates moving toward the higher part of the range later in the year.

What should YOU do at this point?

At this point, I would recommend anyone with an Adjustable Mortgage at ANY rate, or a fixed rate at 5.75% or higher, call me immediately to see how much you can save at the lowest rates in history. If you snooze on this one, you definitely lose! Call me today for more info.

Get in line for the government “bail-out” that will help YOU, the tax payer, for a change!

JIM ASKINS – FAIRWAY MORTGAGE 970-731-3100 (CO) 505-263-7466 (NM)  800-326-2100

E-mail: jaskins@colmortgage.com Home page: www.colmortgage.com “Application”


Posted by JIM ASKINS on January 13th, 2009 9:37 AMPost a Comment (0)

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2008 ECONOMIC YEAR IN REVIEW
January 5th, 2009 9:49 AM

ROTTEN YEAR - The S&P 500 lost 37.0% (total return) during 2008, its worst calendar year performance since the stock index declined 43.3% in 1931 or 77 years ago. Its loss of 21.9% (total return) in the 4th quarter of 2008 was the 7th worst quarterly loss ever for the S&P 500 and its poorest quarterly showing in 21 years (i.e., since the 4th quarter 1987 produced a loss of 22.5%). The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research).

2. AFTERWARDS - In the 20 years following 1931 (i.e., 1932-51), the S&P 500 gained +11.7% per year on a total return basis. In the 20 years following the 4th quarter 1987 (i.e., 1988-2007), the S&P 500 gained +11.8% per year on a total return basis (source: BTN Research).

3. FIFTY-YEAR AVERAGE RETURN - The average annual total return for the S&P 500 over the last half-century (i.e., the 50-years from 1959-2008) is +9.2% per year (source: BTN Research).

4. UP vs. DOWN - The split between “up” & “down” days for the S&P 500 over the last 50 years is 3% “up” and 47% “down.” The split during calendar year 2008 was 50/50 (source: BTN Research).

5. BEARS - The S&P 500 has experienced 9 bear markets (i.e., peak to trough declines of at least 20%) in the last 50 years (i.e., 1959-2008) or 1 bear market every 5 ½ years. The average bear market “peak-to-trough” decline in the last half-century has been 34.9%. From its all-time closing high of 1565 on 10/09/07, the S&P 500 fell 51.9% to its bear market closing low of 752 on 11/20/08 (source: BTN Research).

6. POST-BEAR RETURN - The average gain for the S&P 500 in the 1-year following the low close for the 8 bear markets that occurred in the last 50 years is +36.5%. Note that the closing low point of the 9th bear market from the last 50 years took place just 1 ½ months ago (source: BTN Research).

7. DOWN, THEN UP - Since closing at a bear market low of 752 on 11/20/08, the S&P 500 has gained +24.3% on a total return basis. The stock index closed at 932 on Friday 1/02/09 (source: BTN Research).

8. NEARLY ALL - Only 26 stocks in the S&P 500 stock index (i.e., just 1 out of every 19 stocks) were up in calendar year 2008. 168 stocks in the index (or 1 out of every 3 stocks) fell by at least 50% during the year (source: NASD100.com).

9. BIG SWINGS - The S&P 500 had 28 trading days during calendar year 2008 that produced a gain or loss of at least 4% (i.e., the index’s percentage change from consecutive trading days). In the previous 25 calendar years (i.e., 1983-2007), the S&P 500 had 28 trading days that produced a gain or loss of at least 4% (source: BTN Research).

10. DOLLAR LOSSES - The S&P 500 had a market capitalization of $12.87 trillion on 12/31/07. During calendar year 2008, the stock index lost exactly $5 trillion of market value, falling to $7.87 trillion on 12/31/08. Total US stock losses (from all domestic equities) amounted to $6.9 trillion (source: S&P, Rocky Mountain News).

11. SMALL-CAPS - The small-cap Russell 2000 stock index lost 33.8% (total return) in calendar year 2008, its worst calendar year performance ever. The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small-cap securities which generally involve greater risks (source: BTN Research).

12. GAS PRICES - The national average price of a gallon of gasoline ended calendar year 2007 at $3.05, rose to a peak price of $4.11 on 7/16/08, and ultimately finished 2008 at $1.62 a gallon. From 9/18/08 to 12/12/08 (i.e., a period of 86 consecutive days or more than 12 weeks), the national average price of gasoline dropped each day (source: AAA).

13. OIL PRICES - The price of oil ended calendar year 2007 at $95.95 a barrel, rose to an intraday record high of $147.27 on 7/11/08, and ultimately finished 2008 at $44.60 a gallon, a swing of nearly $103 a barrel in the final 5 ½ months of the year (source: New York Mercantile Exchange).

14. EURO MOVES - The euro turned 10-years old yesterday (i.e., the currency began on 1/04/99 at $1.17). The euro ended 2007 at $1.4603, rose to an intraday record of $1.6038 on 7/15/08, fell to $1.2502 on 11/21/08 before ultimately finishing 2008 at $1.3954. 16 European countries use the euro (source: BTN Research).

15. RETIREMENT SAVINGS IN 2009 - The maximum elective employee deferral into an employer-sponsored 401(k) plan in 2009 is $16,500, up $1,000 from $15,500 in 2008. The $16,500 deferral amount does not include the $5,500 in “catch-up” deferrals that an individual age 50 or greater can contribute (source: IRS).


Posted by JIM ASKINS on January 5th, 2009 9:49 AMPost a Comment (0)

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HAPPY NEW YEAR!
January 5th, 2009 9:32 AM

Happy New Year! And Mortgage Bonds are off to a great 2009 so far, thanks to the Fed as they begin their planned purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities. This process will continue gradually through June of this year, which should help buoy Mortgage Bond prices to some extent for the early part of the year.

Going forward, the Fed will report on how much they have purchased in Mortgage Bonds every Thursday, and it will be interesting to see what trading pattern, if any, develops from these releases. Will Bonds turn negative after the buying is done each week...or will they respond favorably to the purchases? Time will tell.

 


Posted by JIM ASKINS on January 5th, 2009 9:32 AMPost a Comment (0)

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